Fads are for Kids; Trends are for Grownups

© Katie Baird

When we were 16, we were adept at fad and trend analysis and spent hours researching! Fashion trends and fads were our lifeblood. What was the payoff? Knowing we'd be looking good!

In the business world, fads may be sniffed at, but the payoff for keeping an eye on trends is much the same as when we were younger. It doesn't matter whether your profession requires you to keep tabs o fashion, the interest rate, the market, buying patterns, health, or population growth in our very own Yavapai County. By keeping track of trends that affect your industry, you'll be positioned to provide the services or products people want or need. As a result, both you and your business will be looking good.

When the term "cocooning" was first coined by Faith Popcorn of Brain Reserve, an increase in consumer spending on home decor for bath and bedroom was noted. Subsequently, the personal chef industry took off and people began to pamper themselves in all kinds of ways: trips to spas, buying cozy pajamas, etc. That was a signal to me that people might be ready to spend on such additional luxuries as personal assistants. Laboring away on my business plan in my own little cocoon, little did I know that the trends I'd picked up on were giving birth to an entirely new industry, Virtual Assistance.

Laura Norman, Community Relations Coordinator of the West Yavapai Guidance Clinic, observed that "trends are extremely valuable for program planning and staffing in a not-for-profit environment." Her management and board of directors review trends weekly, monthly and quarterly. Some of the information they analyze includes such things as:
The numbers of individuals with serious mental illness that enter the system of care each month.
Increases in requests for mental health care from a certain geographic area. Costs of medication and how increases will impact the clinic's total operating budget.

Laura's recommendation as to how other businesses could utilize trend information: "One suggestion for trend tracking is to include history in the data collection and analysis. For example, the number of patients at the West Yavapai Guidance Clinic inpatient psychiatric unit is tracked by month. If for example there is a steady increase in the number of patients in May, June, July and August, it might be a concerning trend. But that increase can be put into perspective with a look at the past two years' summer admissions. If a review of that data that shows a historical increase during this time of year, then the trend becomes less concerning and more normal when balanced with historical figures."

Joy Kimmel, owner of Kimmel Consulting does not use trends in any predictive sense. However, she remarks, "At the end of each year, I do look at what services have been most in demand, and this influences how I talk to people about the services I provide (which ones I emphasize). I also read a professional journal on a monthly basis, and it alerts me to changing trends in the Training and Development industry."

Back in the fashion (and etiquette!) world, Hazel Bowman, owner of Celebrations by Bowman and PrescottWeddings.com , commented, "Keeping on top of what's 'in' is a must for my profession. As an event planner, I must know how to serve the needs of the creative, entertainment, and marketing professional. Brides are constantly looking to me for innovative ideas reflecting the season's fashions and trends." Trickiest, perhaps, Hazel acknowledges, is to muster up the tact and diplomacy required when balancing trends with etiquette in order to minimize any potential embarrassment. Hazel goes on to advise, "If you define trend as denoting a movement or development, then a specialized resource database is your best bet, whether it be from the Census bureau, one of our local Chambers of Commerce, your professional trade organization(s), and/or networking.

So, if you're 16 you may just do fine with Marie Claire or Seventeen. Otherwise, some of the resources you may find valuable, depending on your profession are (and these represent just the tip of the iceberg):

Imagitrends, Reports of the Future
Facts about the Internet
The Library of Congress
ZD Net for Small Business
The Census Bureau
Yavapai County Government
Department of Labor
Dun & Bradstreet

This article first appeared in the Networking News and www.winaz.org, October, 2001. A followup on this piece, published May 1, 2002 appears here trends-redux.html. Katie Baird, owner of Loose Ends (www.looseends.net) is a Certified Virtual Assistant, and is the owener and operator of Loose Ends. Her clientele includes corporations, non profits, schools, and individuals. She may be reached at 928-445-4724 or ktcosmos@looseends.net.